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The UPA government, adrift at the centre, would like to advance the 2014 Lok Sabha election to October-November 2013.

That would serve three purposes.

One, avoid the electoral blowback of four likely successive state assembly defeats in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Delhi. Two, give the BJP less time to sort out its Narendra Modi-as-PM-candidate dilemma. And three, nip Mulayam Singh Yadav's Third Front idea in the bud.

Time, however, is not on the UPA’s side. While the SP and BSP, enmeshed in corruption, communalism and casteism, can be counted on for rancid, day-to-day support, the Congress too needs time to gain full electoral benefit from its cash transfer scheme and food security bill.

Five big states will announce their verdicts between May and November 2013. Karnataka kicks off the election season in May followed by MP, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Delhi.

The Congress is likely to emerge as the largest single party in Karnataka though it may need Kumaraswamy’s JD(S) to stich together a workable majority in the assembly.

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